As India and Bangladesh begin negotiations to renew the Ganga Water Treaty—set to expire in December 2026—the dialogue unfolds against a backdrop of strained bilateral relations, changing hydrological realities, and intensifying climate risks. Signed in 1996, the treaty has served as the cornerstone of water-sharing between the two neighbours. However, three decades later, demographic pressures, upstream development, and climate change have exposed its limitations. The renewal process is therefore not merely about extending an agreement, but about reimagining transboundary river governance for the 21st century.
Key Challenges in Renegotiating the Ganga Water Treaty
One of the central challenges lies in the treaty’s reliance on historical flow data from 1949–1988. River flows in the Ganga Basin have since changed significantly due to altered monsoon patterns, glacier retreat in the Himalayas, increased upstream withdrawals, and frequent extreme events such as floods and droughts. A formula based on outdated averages no longer reflects present or future realities.
Another major point of contention is Bangladesh’s demand for a guaranteed minimum flow during lean months (February–May). As the lower riparian state, Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to reduced dry-season flows that affect agriculture, fisheries, drinking water, and salinity intrusion in coastal areas. India, on the other hand, faces rising domestic, agricultural, and industrial water demands upstream and prefers a shorter treaty duration (10–15 years) to retain flexibility amid uncertainty.
Political trust deficits, limited real-time data sharing, and the narrow focus on water “quantum” rather than river health further complicate negotiations.
Opportunities in Ganga Water Treaty Renewal
Despite these challenges, the renewal presents a strategic opportunity. Both countries recognise that unilateral approaches are unsustainable in a climate-stressed basin. A modernised treaty could move beyond static allocations to incorporate real-time flow data, adaptive management, and joint climate resilience strategies.
The renewal also offers scope to reframe the Ganga not just as a resource to be divided, but as a shared ecological system whose health underpins long-term water security, livelihoods, and regional stability.
Limitations of the Existing Ganga Water Treaty
The current treaty is centred almost entirely on the Farakka Barrage, ignoring upstream basin dynamics and cumulative impacts of dams, barrages, irrigation withdrawals, and land-use changes across the vast Ganga Basin. It lacks provisions on:
- Environmental flows to sustain river ecology
- Climate change adaptation and variability
- Basin-wide flood and drought management
- Water quality, sediment flow, and biodiversity
Moreover, the absence of a minimum guaranteed flow clause leaves Bangladesh exposed during extreme lean periods, while emergency consultation mechanisms remain weak and reactive.
Why a Basin-Wide Management Approach Matters
A basin-centric approach would address these shortcomings by shifting the focus from a single control point to the entire river system. Such an approach would:
- Integrate upstream and downstream needs, reducing mismatches between commitments and availability
- Account for climate-driven variability, including extreme floods and prolonged droughts
- Promote environmental flows to protect fisheries, wetlands, and biodiversity
- Enable coordinated flood forecasting, sediment management, and navigation planning
- Balance human use with ecological sustainability
By treating the Ganga Basin as a connected hydrological and ecological unit, both countries can better manage demand–supply asymmetries and shared climate risks.
Role and Reform of the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC)
The Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), established in 1972, remains the primary institutional mechanism for India–Bangladesh water cooperation. It oversees data sharing, monitoring, and treaty implementation across 54 shared rivers. However, its effectiveness has been constrained by limited authority, infrequent meetings, and a largely advisory role.
To make the JRC more effective, reforms are needed:
- Empower it with greater technical and decision-making autonomy
- Institutionalise real-time data sharing and joint modelling
- Include climate scientists, ecologists, and independent experts
- Establish dispute-resolution and compliance mechanisms
- Expand its mandate from water-sharing to basin governance
A strengthened JRC could serve as the backbone of climate-smart transboundary water management.
Divergent Priorities: Guaranteed Flow vs Flexible Duration
Bangladesh’s demand for a guaranteed minimum flow reflects its downstream vulnerability and dependence on the Ganga for food and livelihood security. India’s preference for a shorter treaty duration reflects uncertainty over future water availability and competing developmental needs. These positions are not irreconcilable.
A flexible treaty with adaptive clauses, periodic reviews, and conditional guarantees linked to real-time flows could balance equity with sovereignty. Such an approach would align national priorities with shared basin sustainability.
Conclusion: Toward Climate-Smart Water Diplomacy
Water-sharing treaties in the 21st century must be climate-smart, ecology-centric, and institutionally robust. The Ganga Water Treaty renewal is a critical test case. By embracing basin-wide management, strengthening institutions like the JRC, and adopting adaptive, transparent mechanisms, India and Bangladesh can transform a long-standing dispute into a model of cooperative river governance—one that secures water, ecosystems, and regional stability in an era of climate uncertainty.